The Thread Briefing: the unbundling of social media, changing green behaviours, and smart speakers finally do something smart.
Hello campers, and welcome to this issue of The Thread Briefing. We’ve got insights on how to change climate behaviours, the niche-ification and tiktokification of social media (both actual words), and some inspiration from around the world of how simple solutions solve real problems.
Let’s get stuck in…
:: Changing climate behaviours ::
We’ve been doing a lot of thinking about climate friendly behaviour change recently, so we were fascinated to read a new study which analysed what works to successfully change pro-environmental behaviours. A team of academics from Sweden, the UK and the US analysed results from 430 different studies to try and draw out lessons relevant across contexts and types of behaviour. The headlines findings were that social comparisons and financial incentives seem to be most effective techniques in changing behaviour, whilst providing information or building knowledge alone was the least effective. And in terms of the type of pro-environmental behaviours targeted, littering was most likely to change, followed by recycling, conservation, consumption and finally transportation.
However, digging into the original paper, there are some further observations and challenges we would raise that the Time article missed:
Implicit in studies like this is a desire to find universal laws, interventions and techniques that transcend context, country and type of behaviour you’re trying to change. I.e. the holy grail of generalizability. And yet anyone who has studied behavioural science knows that perhaps the most important thing to recognise is that CONTEXT MATTERS! Unlike physical laws, there are no sure-things when it comes to human behaviour. Of course, we can find tendencies and biases, but there are almost always exceptions and variation (such as Wikipedia’s counter-intuitive use of social norms in fundraising). So by all means use the evidence base as a starting point, but you will need to start by understanding your context and interpret the evidence through that lens.
The review also nods towards the fact that they cannot take into account the quality of the intervention, only its type. So for instance a communications campaign to promote the benefits of pro-environmental behaviours may have been done badly, but becomes evidence of communications not being a great intervention.
Importantly, the paper also acknowledges that whilst some behaviours (like transport) are harder to shift and have smaller effect sizes, this shouldn’t discourage us from tackling them. the climate impact in shifting transport habits and food consumption, for instance, is much greater than littering or recycling. And there is little evidence that smaller behaviour changes with less climate impact act as a gateway drug to more impactful changes - choosing the most impactful behaviour you can change is critical.
Lastly, a critique of academia more broadly is how narrowly they define the scope. These studies exclude examples of successful behaviour change that did not label their study as being about pro-environmental behaviours (for instance, getting people to eat less meat or drive less for health reasons). And of course, private sector successes are unlikely to be included, as the primary driver is commercial success, and they are unlikely to have published in academic journals. Given how intersectional climate impact is, this seems shortsighted. 😞
However, it’s a really useful starting point when thinking about designing interventions. Just be sure to read the original papers and not rely on the PR about the study!
:: A new era of social media ::
This year we’ve seen a plethora of new social media start-ups, including Artifact (by the founders of Instagram), Substack launching short-form feature ‘Notes’ (just don’t tell Elon it looks like twitter) and new app Bluesky by the ex-founder of twitter Jack Dorsey (which definitely looks like twitter). This article by Maria A Gilfoyle does a great job summarising how AI is making new social experiences possible through better recommendation engines.
We’re essentially seeing social graphs get replaced by interest graphs:
As AI-curated content becomes more prevalent, social media companies will increasingly resemble traditional media companies, with less emphasis on likes and follows. TikTok, for example, allows users to have a great experience without any "friends" or "followers." The next generation of social media platforms is less about finding your friends and more about finding personalized content
:: Smart speakers finally do something smart ::
How do you help small businesses accepted digital payments when the owner is unable to read whether the payment has been confirmed? In India the answer is a ‘smart box’ which is basically a speaker with a SIM card, connected to the payment terminal, that reads out confirmation when a card payment is processed. This ingenious solution not only allows more mom and pop shops and street vendors (often with low literacy levels) to accept digital payments, but allow FinTech companies to better understand the transaction patterns and the financial health of the business and cross sell other services to small merchants, such as micro-loans, which can be approved in hours not weeks.
:: Should we be scared of AI? ::
There have been quite a few prominent folks raising concern about the speed with which AI is improving and whether it should be regulated or put on hold. This article by AI-insider and investor Ian Hogarth is an excellent overview of the concerns of ‘god-like AI’, by someone who knows many of the protagonists.
For a much more sunny outlook towards the inevitability of AI - as well as some wonderful life advice from a well travelled sage - check out this podcast with Kevin Kelly (founder of Wired magazine). He gets to AI and tech around 40mins in, and is excited about what is coming and totally unconvinced that AI is anything close to being sentient.
And finally…
Check out this photography competition from Rest of the World, including the astonishing image below of an aerial view of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai. 🤯😎
Thanks for stopping by.